MAXIMUM WATER RUNOFF FORECAST OF THE DNIEPER RIVER AT THE RECHITSA STATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36773/1818-1212-2021-124-1-69-76Keywords:
empirical mode decomposition, Hilbert-Huang transform, hybrid model, EMD, ARIMA, river runoff forecast estimates.Abstract
A model based on the combined use of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is proposed to obtain forecast estimates of the maximum river runoff. The analysis and comparison of the results of modeling the maximum water runoff of the Dnieper River at the Rechitsa station allow concluding that the use of the hybrid EMD-ARIMA model is preferable to the classical ARIMA model. The decomposition approach of forecasting maximum water runoff series of the spring flood allows to take into account all its local features, internal structure, as well as abnormal discharges.
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