BELARUS ON THE AFRICAN CONTINENT: POTENTIAL AND DIVERSIFICATION OF GOODS EXPORTS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36773/1818-1112-2026-139-1-270-282Keywords:
export, export potential, export concentration index, export diversification, Africa, foreign trade sustainabilityAbstract
Modern practices of foreign trade analysis and assessment are focused primarily on the development of effective public policy measures. Among the key tasks of the foreign trade policy of the Republic of Belarus, special attention is paid to entering new markets. Due to this, the problem of developing support measures for domestic exporters is becoming more relevant. The paper proposes an approach based on the assessment of export potential, concentration and diversification of exports.
Export potential is calculated based on supply, demand and barrier-free trade. Supply and demand are forecast using trade statistics, GDP and population forecasts, income elasticity and tariff levels. Export product concentration is determined using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, which takes into account the value and quantity of goods exported by a country. The possibility of export diversification is determined through the “product space”, which reflects the closeness of the links between goods.
The article sets the task of studying international practices of assessing and analyzing the export of goods. The object of the study is the export of goods, the subject is the potential and diversification of export as characteristics of its sustainability. The goal is to substantiate promising directions of export flows for Belarus in the markets of the African continent.
The paper uses data on foreign trade of international organizations: the UN Comtrade database; the World Development Indicators database the World Bank; Harvard University aggregators and the tools of the International Trade Center. The African continent was chosen as the area of application as a promising and little-studied direction of export flows from Belarus. It was determined that in many respects the competitive position in the African market depends on the basket of export specialization and the technological complexity of the goods included in it.
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