ABRUPT TRANSITIONS IN THE SYSTEM “SPRING FLOOD – DROUGHT – RAIN-INDUCED FLOOD”
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36773/1818-1112-2026-139-1-190-206Keywords:
Belarusian Polesie, flood, spring flood, drought, rainfall flood, abrupt transitions, potential evapotranspiration, water balance, extreme precipitation, transition lag, regime shiftAbstract
This study considers the hypothesis that rapid regime shifts in the sequence "spring flood → drought → rain-inducedl flood" system are occurring more frequently in the Belarusian Polesie. These transitions are explained by three interacting factors. First, spring is becoming warmer and arriving earlier advancing earlier onset and conclusion of spring floods followed by a rapid rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET) causing the soil to lose moisture sharply. Second, an important anthropogenic factor in Polesie is drainage reclamation which accelerates post-flood water runoff severely reducing moisture reserves by early summer. Third, during the warm season, intense rainfall events are possible which, exacerbated by dry soils and an extensive drainage network, more quickly generate surface runoff creating the risk of flash floods. The hypothesis was validated using data from the Pripyat River (Mozyr gauge) and the Vasilevichi meteorological station. Drought conditions were assessed using the daily SPEI30 index (30-day water balance P–PET) and heavy rainfall was identified using thresholds of P95 = 12,1 mm/day and P99 = 25,0 mm/day (April–October). The assessment shows that a statistically significant regime shift occurred in 1991 with spring floods now beginning earlier (the trend of approximately − 4,7 days per decade; p = 0,0007). After the end of the spring flood, drought often sets in within 1–2 months (fast60 ≈ 0,74) and extreme rainfall events after drought periods during the current warming are becoming more frequent and intense.
These findings are critical for the early warning of flood and drought risks for adaptive water management of reclaimed lands in the Belarusian Polesie.
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