SIMULATION OF SUGAR BEET YIELD

Abstract

It is noted that the empirical dependences of crop yields on crop-forming factors in the form of polynomials of any degree obtained by the multiple nonlinear regression method are valid only for the conditions of a specific field experiment. Using them, it is impossible to make a generalization that would allow the widespread use of particular solutions in production practice. The proposed scheme for mathematical modeling of yield is based on the physical principle of the balance of cause-and-effect interactions in a closed physical system (causal interaction). It is shown that the mathematical model of yield, presented in multiplicative form, can include an unlimited number of yield-forming factors. The validity of the developed solution is confirmed by 13-year data on the yield of sugar beet (NZ-type hybrid) cultivated in Belarus at the Molodechno State Variety Testing Station.

Conditions for model verification have been determined that make it possible to predict the yield of sugar beets based on agrochemical soil parameters and applied fertilizers. The yield forecast model is presented in dimensionless form, all blocks of factors of this model are similarity criteria. This allows you to compare the results of mathematical modeling of the yield of any agricultural crop on soils with any agrochemical properties.