ПРОГНОЗНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ СНЕГОНАКОПЛЕНИЯ НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ БЕЛОРУССКОГО ПОЛЕСЬЯ

Олег Павлович Мешик; Виктория Александровна Морозова

FORECAST ASSESSMENTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE TERRITORY OF BELARUSIAN POLESIE

Authors

Олег Павлович Мешик УО «Брестский государственный технический университет»
Виктория Александровна Морозова УО «Брестский государственный технический университет»

Keywords:

snow cover, snow water equivalent, snow height, snow accumulation, GMDH Shell, time series, forecasting

Abstract

The snow cover is the source of river nutrition in the spring, thus forming a spring flood due to the melting of snow accumulated during the winter. The runoff of the spring flood is 40–60% of the annual runoff; during the flood period, settlements and agricultural lands are flooded. As a result of excessive snow accumulation, the structures of buildings and structures may be destroyed as a result of excess snow loads. All this makes it relevant to forecast snow accumulation in the study area for a different perspective.
The paper gives forecast assessments of snow accumulation on the territory of Belarusian Polesie.