THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ANNUAL AND MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF IN BELARUS: ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST
Keywords:
river flow rates, precipitation, air temperature, forecast estimates, climate warming, long-term variabilityAbstract
The article evaluates the changes in the parameters of the annual runoff, the maximum spring flood runoff and the main runoff-forming factors for the period 1988-2018 in relation to the period 1949-1987. The observed over the past decades climatic changes significantly change the situation of the spatio-temporal variability of the maximum runoff. Changes in the annual runoff for most catchments of Belarus are statistically insignificant. The main climatic factors determining the spring flood runoff are precipitation during the winter and spring periods, and the air temperature of the winter period. Taking into account the multimodal ensemble of four climate change scenarios, the forecast estimates of the annual and maximum runoff for the period up to 2035 are obtained.
